WASHINGTON INDOCHINA UPDATE #12
DECEMBER 2002
December could be a springboard for movement on a number of issues, ranging from a tribunal for Khmer Rouge crimes to an agreement between Laos and Thailand on the Nam Theun II dam.
On November 20, the Third Committee of the United Nations passed a unanimous resolution giving UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan a mandate to resume negotiations with the Cambodian government on a war crimes tribunal for Khmer Rouge leaders. The resolution was co-sponsored by Japan and France, and supported by the US and Cambodia. Australia, an original sponsor of the resolution, withdrew its sponsorship at the last moment, maintaining that the final draft was weaker than previous versions, but it voted for the resolution nevertheless. China, which had previously been reported as opposing a tribunal, voted in favor of the resolution. The resolution will go before the General Assembly later this month, and is expected to pass. The UN shut down negotiations in early 2002, because it was dissatisfied with the Khmer Rouge Tribunal Act moving through the Cambodian legislature. In the four-year history of talks between the UN and Cambodia on a tribunal, differences had solidified around two issues: the model of joint prosecution, which gives Cambodian jurists a one-member edge over international ones, addressed by the requirement of a “supermajority” vote on important issues; and the prosecution of Khmer Rouge suspects who had received prior amnesties as part of the carrot and stick strategy that led to the KR’s collapse.
Earlier in the month, debate on the resolution was complicated by an offer by South African President Thabo Mbeki to share that country’s experience with Cambodia on a truth and reconciliation commission. Cambodia has sent a fact-finding mission to South Africa to study the commission model, and there are varied opinions about its applicability.
Amnesty International and other human rights groups and activists opposed the resolution, arguing that international standards of justice can not be met in a tribunal conducted under Cambodian jurisdiction. However, Khmer Rouge expert Craig Etcheson was quoted in the Online Asia Times as saying that calling off the tribunal “…would have the result that the Khmer Rouge leadership would die quiet, peaceful deaths in their beds, having successfully defended their impunity…”
Cambodian Elections:
Choosing Sides
The international and Cambodian press have reported
accusations by FUNCINPEC President Prince Norodom Ranariddh that the US-based
International Republican Institute is attempting to hinder, and even dismantle,
his party in advance of 2003 national elections. Ranariddh charges that IRI staff are attempting to persuade
FUNCINPEC officials to defect to the Sam Rainsy Party, whose election he
believes IRI is promoting. IRI denies
that it has taken a partisan approach to the elections. In recent weeks, however, this assertion of
neutrality has been put in doubt by the growing appearance of a triangle of the
SRP, the Senate Appropriations Committee, and IRI. In early December the SRP bestowed its Freedom Award on Senator
Mitch McConnell, Chairman of the Appropriations Committee. In February 2002, McConnell published an op
ed in the Boston Globe calling for
the US to shift its Cambodia policy from a nonpartisan approach to pro-active
support of Rainsy in the 2003 elections.
The SRP award will be accepted on McConnell’s behalf by his chief of
staff, Paul Grove. Prior to joining
the Appropriations Committee staff, Grove was Asia Director for IRI.
US and Vietnamese officials met in Washington in November to discuss religious freedom issues, a chronic sources of disagreement in the bilateral relationship. US Ambassador for Religious Freedom John Hanford and Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Lorne Craner led the American team, which will make a recommendation to the Secretary of State on whether Vietnam should be designated as a “Country of Particular Concern” (CPC), for government policy toward religion. The talks were not reassuring to Hanoi on that count. Sources report that the US was more critical of Hanoi than usual in the talks, with particular focus on the status of Protestant churches in the Central Highlands, where religious issues are entangled with land use policy. The Secretary’s decision on a designation for both Vietnam and Laos is expected in January.
In late November, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan visited the Vatican, becoming the first senior Vietnamese official to do so in fifteen years. Vu’s visit followed October talks between Vietnamese and Vatican officials on the selection of Vietnamese Catholic clerical leaders, and the November announcement by the Vatican of the appointment of two new Vietnamese bishops. Since the mid-1990’s, Vietnam and the Vatican have moved closer on the issue of clerical appointments, in contrast to China, which insists on appointing bishops without Vatican input or approval.
Economic Development
The Thai press reported in early December that the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand will seal the agreement with Laos at the end of this month to build the Nam Theun II Dam. A memorandum of understanding between the parties was signed in 1996, but Thailand was forced to shelve the project in the wake of the 1997-98 economic crisis. From the $1.3 billion start-up figure, Laos expects to receive $4.6 million in revenue with the signing. In anticipation of the agreement, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank launched separate missions in late November to assess the social and environmental aspects of developing the dam. A guarantee endorsement from the Bank is critical to funding. However, a number of details remain to be resolved before formal agreement between EGAT and the Lao government is reached. One is a date at which the dam will be fully operational. This month Laos revised its 2006 target date and now estimates the dam will not be functional until 2008.
In mid-November the WTO Accession Working Party and the Cambodian government announced their intention to complete arrangements for Cambodia to enter the World Trade Organization as early as September 2003, when the WTO Ministerial will be held in Mexico. If successful, this would make Cambodia the first least-developed country to join the WTO. A final report on Cambodia’s eligibility is expected from the Working Group by April, although it anticipated that the country would be granted a transition period to enable it to bring its economy up to entrance standards. In the meantime, the US and Australia are pressing Phnom Penh to escalate the legislative process to harmonize Cambodia’s laws with WTO regulations and establish a system of commercial courts.
Cambodia’s imminent entry into the WTO, despite its least-developed country status, is better understood when its economic system is measured against that of several other countries in the region. In late November, the Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal released its annual index of economic freedom, measuring the openness of the economies of 153 countries. Judged to have a “mostly free” economic system, Cambodia ranked 36th, ahead of Japan, France, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines, and ranked 4th of all Asian countries. Cambodia’s scores showed a steady progression in economic freedom since 1997. The economies of Vietnam and Laos were both placed in the “not free” category, ranking 136th and 153rd respectively, although Vietnam’s scores have demonstrated annual improvement since 2000. Economies are scored by a formula taking into consideration foreign investment codes, tariffs, bank regulations, monetary policy and black markets.
As part of its investigation of allegations that Vietnam is “dumping” catfish onto the American market, in early November the US Commerce Department ruled that Vietnam has a “non-market” economy, a contention that the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers denies. Approximately one-third of Vietnamese catfish exports go to the United States, and comprise roughly 20% of the US catfish market. An initial ruling on the dumping charges from the Commerce Department is expected in January 2003, and a final decision by June.
Among
businesses that supported Vietnam’s status as a market economy were American
Standard, Cargill, CitiGroup, New York Life International and Unilever. For additional information see http://ia.ita.doc.gov/download/vietnam-nme-status/vietnam-market-status-determination.pdf
The US Trade Representative is reportedly preparing to send a request to Congress in January for passage of the US-Laotian Bilateral Trade Agreement. The USTR has been on the verge of sending a letter up for several months, but has apparently felt that it lacked an appropriate legislative vehicle and an opportune moment. The moment may have been provided by the Bush administration’s new US-ASEAN Economic Initiative, which aims to help Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia integrate further into the international economy by preparing for WTO entry. A BTA, and concomitant Normal Trade Relations for Laos, would presumably be a first step in this process. The issue of a vehicle – specifically, whether passage will be sought through a stand-alone bill, or attached to other legislation – must still be resolved. Congressional debate on BTA for Laos is likely to focus on human rights, at the urging of some hardline Lao-American groups. Possibly in anticipation, four Senators – Feingold, Boxer, Kohl and Feinstein – sent a letter to Lao Ambassador to the US Phanthong Phommahaxay in early November raising several human rights issues. (It should be noted that numerous countries with at least as serious human rights issues have normal trade relations with the US.)
A broad group of Lao-Americans, non-governmental and business organizations is circulating a draft letter to US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick urging that the request for BTA legislation go forward as soon as possible. For further information on this effort, contact washington@ffrd.org.
In late November Congress confirmed the nomination of Charles A. Ray to be US Ambassador to Cambodia. A former military officer and foreign service veteran, Ray’s last post in Asia was as Consul-General in Ho Chi Minh City. Ambassador Ray expects to take up his duties in Phnom Penh in late December.
Peace Corps in
Cambodia?
On November 14, eight members of the House Committee on Ways and Means – Congressmen Charles Rangel, George Miller, Lane Evans, Sam Farr, Tom Lantos, James Leach, Jim McDermott, and Earl Blumenauer – sent a letter to Peace Corps Director Gaddhi Vasquez in support of a Peace Corps program in Cambodia. Responding to an invitation from Phnom Penh to host a Peace Corps program, the Congressmen acknowledged that establishing a program is a lengthy process, the first step of which is a security assessment. However, they stated that the security situation in Cambodia has “greatly improved” since the mid-1990’s, as evidenced by the quantum leap in tourism in Cambodia over the past three years.
Note: Cambodia and the US signed a Peace Corps agreement in 1994, but the US refused to implement it after the Khmer Rouge radio threatened volunteers would be targeted.
US exchange organizations with programs involving Vietnamese participants have noticed a pattern of delay or denial of visas for Vietnamese traveling to the US on diplomatic or official visas. This causes disruption, and delays often amount to denials if it causes applicants to miss scheduled events. Vietnamese traveling on unofficial passports are reportedly not subject to these problems. Some organizations have theorized that this trend may be an attempt by Washington to pressure Hanoi to agree to accept non-US citizens of Vietnamese origin who have completed prison sentences for felonies committed in the US. They cite threats of denials of visas for Cambodians until Phnom Penh signed an agreement to repatriate Khmer deported from the US for felony sentences. The State Department acknowledges delays and other obstacles, but it insists that they are not linked to the issue of repatriation of Vietnamese imprisoned in the US. The Department instead attributes the trend to its review of US procedures for visa issuance in all countries in the wake of September 11, 2001. Although there is evidence to support this explanation on a worldwide basis, it does not explain the apparent discrepancy between treatment of official and non-official Vietnamese visa applicants.
Whatever the reason for delays, US inviters must allow two or three months for visa approvals, should provide a clear sponsorship letter noting any schedule constraints, and may wish to advise applicants to utilize non-official passports except in the case of government-to-government programs.
Community bulletin
board
The Asia Society is organizing an important regional conference in Hanoi March 5-7 that is worth taking into consideration for travel schedules. The conference is business focused, "Opening Markets and Continuing Growth". However, NGOs and educational institutions are welcome and are eligible for a special registration rate. For further information visit http://www.asiasociety.org/policy_business/save_date_vietnam.html
The Washington Indochina Update is published by the Fund for Reconciliation and Development (FRD), 355 West 39th Street, New York, NY 10018. It is compiled and written monthly by Catharin Dalpino who is representing FRD in Washington on a consultant basis. She can be reached at washington@ffrd.org.
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