Fund for Reconciliation and Development

Washington Indochina Update #20

December, 2003

 

 

Laos achieved a watershed on the Nam Theun II dam, while Vietnam attempted to accelerate the process of WTO accession.  A ground-breaking port call for a US naval vessel followed on the heels of the Vietnamese Defense Minister’s visit to the US.  Hmong-American hardliner Vang Pao sparked debate over reconciliation and its affect on Normal Trade Relations for Laos with a provocative new “doctrine”.  

 

 

Trade

 

Hanoi Steps on the Gas at WTO Negotiation

 

In mid-December Vietnam completed its seventh negotiation meeting with the WTO working party on Vietnamese accession.  Hanoi continues to set 2005 as the goal for Vietnam’s entry into the WTO.  In that year, the United States and the European Union will abolish textile quotas for WTO members but retain them for non-members.  Garments have overtaken oil as Vietnam’s chief export, and the US and EU actions will place Vietnamese exporters at an obvious disadvantage to major textile exporters such as China.

 

At the meeting, Vice Minister for Trade Luong Van Tu, who serves as chief negotiator with the WTO, presented Vietnam’s latest offer: to reduce average tariffs by 4.5% to 22%, and to make market access commitments in ten service sectors and ninety-two sub-sectors.   However, in the course of negotiations, which Hanoi opened with the WTO in 1995, several major issues have emerged.    One is whether Vietnam should be considered a “low-income and highly indebted poor country,” in the terminology used by international financial institutions, or whether the country’s potential as a competitive developing economy should be considered.  Hanoi favors the former view, which grants greater flexibility and a longer transition period.  Earlier in the year, the working party chairperson, Seong Ho of South Korea, cautioned that Vietnam would have to make a “quantum jump” to enter the WTO by 2005.  In response, Hanoi has asked that three negotiation sessions be scheduled in 2004.

 

 

Vang Pao Statement: New Path or Cul-de-Sac?

 

            General Vang Pao, former leader of US funded Hmong troops in Laos during the Vietnam War and a prominent hardliner in the Hmong-American community, issued a “Doctrine on Laos and Southeast Asia” at a Laotian New Years gathering of Hmong-American and Lao-American leaders in Minnesota.  One element of his statement hinted at support for Normal Trade Relations with Laos, but with conditions – the parameters of which are not clear -- relating to human rights and a ceasefire between Hmong insurgents in Laos and the Laotian government. 

 

Sources in the Lao PDR government minimized the significance of Vang Pao's statement, characterizing it as simply the opinion of single American citizen without authority to impose conditions on a process of reconciliation that was already well established.  On the other hand, anti-NTR lobbyist Philip Smith was described by the press as, "expressing deep concern about the general's new direction".

 

            The utility of Vang Pao’s remarks to genuine reconciliation remains to be seen, but the media has been quick to declare it a watershed in relations within the Hmong community and between Laos and the United States.  Representative Betty McCollum, who has introduced HR 3195 into the House to extend Normal Trade Relations for Laos, cited Vang Pao’s statement in a December 2 “Dear Colleague” letter, urging support for NTR.   House proponents of NTR are presently attempting to identify a champion for the legislation on the Senate side. (FRD’s sign-on letter to Congress on NTR for Laos can be viewed at www.ffrd.org/indochina/laos/signonfinal.htm   To add your name, visit http://www.petitiononline.com/LaosNTR/petition.html )

 

 

Bilateral Relations

 

Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Visits the US

 

            In December, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan brought a sizeable delegation of business leaders and government officials to the United States, primarily to promote US-Vietnam trade and investment.  The United States is currently Vietnam’s largest export destination, but not yet its largest investor, a distinction which Singapore holds.  Export revenue is increasingly crucial to the Vietnamese economy; at $20 billion this year, it makes up half of all GDP.  The delegation visited Washington, Chicago, Houston (where the Deputy Prime Minister met with former President George H. Bush), Austin, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose.  In Washington, the delegation met with Secretary of State Colin Powell and US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick.

Although trade and investment issues dominated the agenda, Vietnamese sources also report that a range of issues were discussed, including counter-terrorism and the need or continued cooperation on humanitarian issues deriving from the Vietnam War.  Included in Hanoi’s counter-terrorism concerns are US-based extremists who have been linked to terrorist attacks on the Vietnamese embassies in Thailand and the Philippines.

 

 

Economic Development

 

EGAT Signs Nam Theun II Agreement

 

            After years of see-sawing, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) has signed an agreement to purchase hydroelectric power from Laos’ planned Nam Thuen II dam on a tributary of the Mekong River.  This agreement sets into place an eighteen-month deadline for the consortium building the dam to secure financing for the project, estimated at $1.2 billion.   It is widely assumed that funding will not be obtained without guarantees from the World Bank, which is weighing a number of factors:   resettlement of affected villagers, logging, and the percentage of revenues from the dam to be allocated to development.  Under the current schedule, the dam will begin operation in 2009. Estimates of projected revenue vary widely – from $2 billion to $5 billion in the first 25 years – but the dam will likely bring considerable revenue to an economy with revenue levels currently at $275 million per year.  The World Bank guarantees notwithstanding, Laos is turning increasingly to neighboring economies for infrastructure financing.  Vientiane has announced it will build five smaller dams with Vietnamese help, and this month received a $20 million loan from Thailand to develop airports and other infrastructure keyed to the 2004 ASEAN Summit, which Laos will chair.  Laos will also likely be a recipient of loans from the newly-established Thai International Bank, which the Thai government intends should promote development in Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.

 

 

Security Relations

 

Port Call for US Ship Moves US-Vietnamese Security Relations Ahead

 

            Following on the landmark visit to the United States of Vietnamese Defense Minister Pham Van Tra (see November’s Update), in mid-November the USS Vandergrift, a guided missile frigate from the Seventh Fleet, became the first US warship to dock in Vietnam since the war.  The ship sailed into Ho Chi Minh City for a four-day port call, and was received by Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Nguyen Duc Hung.  In the course of the visit, Vandergrift crew worked on community projects.  Although both the United States and Vietnam have publicly declared the Tra visit and the port call to have been prominent watersheds, the pace of further developments in the US-Vietnamese security relations is likely to be slow.  Reports in Washington suggest that the Pentagon would like to strengthen military ties with a number of Southeast Asian countries, but this issue is more complicated with Vietnam than with traditional American allies in the region.  

 

 

Cambodia To Destroy Missiles

 

            The Cambodian government has announced that it will destroy its full stock of surface-to-air missiles, to prevent their possible theft and use by terrorists in the region. The announcement was made after Prime Minister Hun Sen met with US Ambassador Charles Ray, although US sources report that the Cambodian decision was “unilateral.”

The Cambodian Ministry of Defense indicated that it presently has 233 A-72 surface-to-air missiles that were purchased from the USSR in the 1980’s.  Ambassador Ray said that the US would provide weapons experts to Cambodia to help in dismantling and destroying the missiles.

 

 

Human Rights and Political Development

 

UN Signals Khmer Rouge Tribunal May Be Imminent

 

            A United Nations team visited Cambodia in November to discuss technical aspects of a tribunal for former Khmer Rouge leaders.  Karsten Herret, head of the mission, indicated that tribunal proceedings could begin next year.  However, the present political deadlock could delay a planned start, since the National Assembly has yet to approve Cambodia’s agreement with the UN on the trials.  In the meantime, UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Cambodia Peter Leupretcht has made his tenth official mission to the country.  Although he cited the continuing parliamentary deadlock and issues with Montagnard refugees as problematic, Leupretcht announced that he has seen gradual improvement in Cambodia’s human rights situation in the course of his observations there.

 

 

Tension on Religious Freedom in Vietnam Ratchets up in Washington

 

            On November 19, the House passed Resolution 427, expressing dissatisfaction with the protection of religious rights in Vietnam, with emphasis on the Unified Buddhist Church of Vietnam.  The resolution, introduced by Representative Loretta Sanchez, recommends that Vietnam be designated a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for religious freedom, which carries sanctions.  The resolution was opposed by Congressman Lane Evans in a “Dear Colleague” letter.  Evans wrote, “While Vietnam has narrow restrictions on religious organizations, it is not the totalitarian, religious oppressor as its opponents would like you to believe.”   CPC designation of a country is made by the Secretary of Stateand can be implemented at any time. 

 

            Proponents of CPC for Vietnam are likely to view the 2003 State Department Report on Religious Freedom, released on December 18, as supporting their position.  Although both Vietnam and Laos are highlighted in the report's Executive Summary as presenting "totalitarian or authoritarian attempts to control religious belief or practice," Laos is also cited for "significant improvement in the area of religious freedom." In the latter country, the report mentions evident government sincerity to promote reconciliation among religious groups, and the efforts of senior members of the Politburo to provide instruction to local officials on the need for tolerance of minority religions.  The report generally finds that Cambodia protects religious freedom. 

 

In his remarks to the press, US Ambassador-at-Large for Religious Freedom John Hanford underscored the Department's criticism of Vietnam, but also noted that several individuals the US government had identified as being under detention  -- "a significant portion"  -- had been recently released.  Hanford also ventured that additional individuals might be released when the government announces the Tet amnesties in February.  However, since the report covers the period from July 2002 to June 2003, neither of these points is included in it.  At the press briefing, Hanford also remarked that Laos has moved away from the danger of a CPC designation, but that Vietnam was "a little different story."  The full text of the report and the press briefing can be accessed at www.state.gov

 

 

Freedom House Ratings for Indochina: Low, And Staying There

 

            The conservative NGO Freedom House has released its 2003 index, rating the world’s countries on civil and political freedoms.  As they have been in past years, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam were rated “Not Free,” the lowest of three designations, and their numerical ratings are unchanged from the previous year.  On a scale of 1 to 7 (with 1 being highest), Cambodia received a “6” for political rights and a “5” for civil rights, while both Vietnam and Laos were rated “7” on political rights and “6” on civil rights.  The ratings are accompanied by brief narratives on each country which borrow heavily and selectively from the annual State Department Human Rights Reports.  The Cambodia report appears to be particularly selective in its fact-gathering.  For example, the narrative reports that the United Nations terminated negotiations with the Cambodian government on the Khmer Rouge tribunal in 2002, but makes no mention after that of the renewed and ultimately successful negotiations later in 2003. 

 


Legacy Issues

 

Vietnam Releases Pioneer Landmine Survey

 

            In late November Vietnam announced the results of a landmark study on unexploded landmines and ordnance in Quang Tri Province, one of the most heavily bombed regions in the Vietnam War.  Survey data indicates that beween the end of the war in 1975 and 2002, as many as 2,540 people were killed by landmines and UXO in Quang Tri, with 4,243 injured.  Nearly three-quarters of the victims were under the age of 30, and were heavily concentrated among members of minority groups, particularly those in remote areas.  Funding for the survey was provided by UNICEF and the Vietnam Veterans Memorial Fund.  The data also offers the first comprehensive look at the socio-economic impact of landmines and UXO on local residents, showing that deaths and injuries were a particular burden on poor families with limited opportunities for income generation. Download a copy of the survey at http://www.vvmf.org/index.cfm?SectionID=300

 

 

International NGO Conference in Hanoi Considers War Legacy Issues

Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Le Van Bang headlined the International Conference on Vietnam-INGO  Cooperation in Hanoi in November.  The event brought together more than 350 participants from the INGO community, international multi-lateral organizations, agencies for development and cooperation, representatives of foreign embassies in Hanoi, and nearly 250 participants from ministries and government agencies, people’s organizations, other partner organizations, research institutions, and representatives of 61 provinces/cities in Vietnam.

For a list of available speech texts, write info@ffrd.org   An address by FRD Executive Director John McAuliff calling for greater attention by international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) to war legacy issues and to education of the public and policymakers can be read at http://www.ffrd.org/speeches/vnngospeech.htm

 

 

 

 

Unless we are able to find new funding, this  will be the final issue of the Washington Indochina Update compiled by Catharin Dalpino, former representative of the Asia Foundation for Cambodia, Laos and Thailand and a Depurty Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton Administration. 

 

We welcome suggestions of potential sources of support from the foundation or business community to sustain Catharin’s exceptional work.

 

To obtain a copy of FRD’s proposal for a strengthened presence in Washington to actively address priority issues in US relations with Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, contact jmcauliff@ffrd.org