WASHINGTON UPDATE #13
JANUARY 2003
In the New Year,
non-governmental actors give the official community a nudge on Laos trade. Some decisions are delayed: Thai agreement
on the Nam Theun II dam (now scheduled for early March) and the US Secretary of
State’s decision on designation of Vietnam and Laos as “countries of particular
concern” in religious freedom. In the
meantime, the UN and Phnom Penh go back to the table, and the INS offers a
potential legal lifeline to Indochinese immigrants in the US. In early February, look for the release of
the State Department’s annual Human Rights Reports, which could cause a spike
in bilateral irritations.
Can ASEAN (and Cambodia) help mediate the Korean crisis?
In recognition that conflict in the northern half of Asia presents a threat to Southeast Asia as well, former Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan has urged the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Cambodia as the current ASEAN chair, to take a more vigorous and direct role in mediating the current Korean crisis. For this purpose, ASEAN could call upon the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which North Korean joined in 2000, and the ASEAN troika, which consists of representatives of the past, present and future chairmen of ASEAN. In a January 13 statement, Surin credited Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen with helping to bring North Korea into ARF after the Non-Aligned Movement’s Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in 1999 and the Group of 77 Summit in Havana shortly thereafter. He urged Hun Sen to dispatch the troika to Pyongyang to open dialogue, noting that Cambodia has been active in promoting ASEAN’s profile on issues related to regional peace and stability.
In mid-January the Japanese government made a $3.6 million grant to Cambodia to help implement a small arms management program. A holdover from two decades of civil war, the high level of arms remaining in Cambodia affects every aspect of the country’s development – political, economic and social – and has a considerable impact on the region as a whole. An estimated one third of the arms traffic in Southeast Asia is comprised of munitions left over from the Cambodian civil war.
Another key internal security concern arising from the civil war– the need for demobilization—has been stalled, awaiting payment from the World Bank for the second phase of an ongoing cooperative program. The Bank is scheduled to provide $18.2 million, with Cambodia furnishing $7.2 million. An agreement to demobilize the factional armies in order to create a unified and less expensive armed force was integral to the 1991 Paris accords. However, this complicated and costly task was set aside during the UNTAC period, because of the withdrawal of the Khmer Rouge from the peace process and because UNTAC’s tenure essentially ended with the 1993 election. As a result, Cambodia continues to have a military whose per capita number of soldiers is roughly twice that of the United States, and three times the average in the developing world.
Also to improve internal security, this month the Cambodian government switched contractors for the country’s ship registry, with the aim of tightening the registration and tracking of ships under the Cambodian flag. Foreign diplomats have remarked that the switch, to the South Korean Cosmo Group, should improve the Cambodian government’s ability to stem narcotics trafficking and prevent foreign extremists from using Cambodian ships to smuggle arms and personnel into the region.
In a January 22 address to the Washington branch of the Asia Society, US Ambassador to Vietnam Raymond Burghardt evaluated Vietnam’s present state of political development and its effect on the bilateral relationship. In the realm of legal development, he cited revision of the Foreign Investment Law as a step forward, but encouraged the government to provide more opportunity for the public to comment on draft laws. Although the two countries continue to differ on some human rights issues, such as religious freedom and restrictions on internet use, Ambassador Burghardt pointed to improvements in the annual human rights dialogue. For example, the Vietnamese government has expanded participation in the talks, to include representatives from the Ministries of Public Security and Justice as well as Foreign Affairs. In addition, Burghardt commented that Hanoi no longer maintains that such issues are strictly “internal affairs.” His assessment of the long-term prospects for greater openness in Vietnam was “almost entirely positive.” In the foreseeable future, he predicted, Vietnam could see a “dramatic expansion” in personal freedoms and a stronger legal system and set of legal norms.
Full text of speech can be seen at http://usinfo.state.gov/cgi-bin/washfile/display.pl?p=/products/washfile/geog/ea&f=03012202.eea&t=/products/washfile/newsitem.shtml
Following the General Assembly resolution to urge the United Nations to return to the table with the Cambodian government for talks on a war crimes tribunal for the Khmer Rouge, talks began in New York in early January. Secretary General Kofi Annan named Legal Counsel Hans Corell to head the UN delegation, and Senior Minister Sok An has been appointed to serve as Phnom Penh’s chief negotiator. Both reprise their roles in previous negotiations, which may not augur well for breaking the stalemate over outstanding issues, the most significant one being the degree of authority the Cambodian prosecutors would have over the proceedings, compared to that of their international counterparts. FUNCINPEC leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh has urged that the parties seek compromises in this new round to avert the rupture in previous talks, and warned that this was most likely the final opportunity to reach agreement. Sok An has proposed that the next round of talks be held in Phnom Penh. Under the terms of the resolution, Annan must report back to the General Assembly on the talks in March.
The Millennium
Challenge Account: will Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos be “challenged”?
The Bush Administration is seeking to augment US foreign assistance with a new program that will increase levels of core development assistance by 50% over the next three years, to reach the level of $5 billion in the third year. In its budget proposal to Congress for Fiscal Year 2004, due in February, the Administration will request the establishment of a Millennium Challenge Account (MCA), which Bush has defined as “ a new compact for global development, defined by new accountability for both rich and poor nations alike.” The Administration plans to administer the MCA through a new government corporation, supervised by a Board of Directors composed of Cabinet-level officials and chaired by the Secretary of State.
The criteria for recipient countries under the MCA are complicated. The first cut is per capita income. In the initial year, recipient countries must have a per capita income level below $1,435; the ceiling rises in subsequent years to include lower middle income countries. However, recipient countries must also satisfy an extensive formula of performance criteria. Under the category of “governing justly,” countries will be assessed according to indices produced by Freedom House and the World Bank, on civil liberties, political rights, good governance and control of corruption. Under “investing in people,” countries must demonstrate commitment to public health and education, based on the percentage of Gross Domestic Product they devote to these sectors. Under “promoting economic freedom,” countries will be assessed according to credit ratings, inflation, budget deficits, and trade policy.
Will Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos qualify for funds under the MCA? All three countries are well under the per capita income ceiling for the first year. However, their ratings under the performance criteria and the indices that undergird them could exclude them. For example, in their annual ratings on political freedom and civil liberties released this month, Freedom House graded all three countries as “not free,” the lowest rating, although Cambodia was judged to be slightly higher than Vietnam and Laos. Cambodia too is likely to get a slightly higher rating on some aspects of economic freedom. It is not known at this time whether forward momentum – moving in a positive direction – will have bearing on a country’s status. However, all foreign aid becomes politicized in short order, and the MCA is not likely to be exempted. Countries could be affected by their public image in the United States; within the policy community, they are also likely to be assessed according to their strategic importance to US policy goals. The latter will doubtless be influenced by the current war on terrorism, in which none of the three countries of Indochina are considered to be significant players.
On January 14, sixty-one Laotian-Americans, representatives of business associations and non-governmental organizations, and concerned individuals urged US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick to request that Congress grant Normal Trade Relations to Laos. The letter to Ambassador Zoellick pointed out that denial of NTR in light of normal trade relations granted to Vietnam and Cambodia makes little sense, and that after 1975 the United States and Laos maintained official ties when relations with the other countries of Indochina had been completely severed. It also observed that ratification of the US-Laotian Bilateral Trade Agreement forms part of President Bush’s trade agenda, and that the President recently cited Laos as one of the countries included in the Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative. At present, the total two-way US-Laotian trade amounts to a slim $8 million per year.
The same week, opponents of closer relations with Laos attempted to link their issues with support for a war in Iraq by joining the counter-demonstration against the January 18-19 anti-war march on Washington. Philip Smith, billed in the Washington Times as the director for the Washington chapter of Lao Veterans of America, called for Laos to be added to the Administration’s “axis of evil,” insisting there were parallels between Saddam Hussein’s treatment of ethnic Kurds and Laos’ handling of its Hmong population. Numerous inconsistencies with Laos’s inclusion on the “axis” are immediately apparent: unlike relations with North Korea, Iraq and Iran, the United States has had uninterrupted, official relations with Laos for half a century. Moreover, there is obviously little possibility that Laos has developed weapons of mass destruction, much less that it has exported WMD’s, a key criteria for inclusion on the “axis” articulated by the Administration. However, it should be emphasized that there is no legal or regulatory designation for countries in the “axis of evil” and that, whatever use is made of it in the policy process, it is strictly a rhetorical device.
As Vietnam awaits the Commerce Department’s preliminary ruling on catfish, Hanoi trade officials have taken the initiative to criticize bill H.R. 5578 against shrimp export to the United States from several countries, Vietnam included. The bill not only requires limits on the quantity of shrimp exported to the US but also proposes financial sanctions on violators. Vietnamese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Phan Thuy Than has charged that the bill contravenes the spirit of the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement, and that it runs counter to the spirit of trade liberalization the US is promoting.
In the meantime, talks between the two countries are gearing up on a textile agreement as Vietnam faces possible quotas in this sector. Initial discussions are planned for February and will require three rounds, in two-to-three month intervals. Vietnam exports over $3 billion in textiles, roughly half of that to the United States. Textiles represent a substantial share in total US-Vietnam trade.
The US Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) has announced a new rule to provide permanent resident status to as many as five thousand eligible individuals from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. This is expected to benefit individuals from the three countries who were paroled into the United States after 1975, and before 1997, and have had indefinite immigration status since. Applicants must have entered the US through the Orderly Departure Program; a refugee camp in East Asia; or a camp administered by the United Nations for displaced persons in Thailand. The new rule also provides a waiver for criminal history under certain circumstances. At present, it is not known how many, if any, of the Khmer in the process of deportation for felony convictions might be eligible for consideration. However, legal authorities point out that aliens without criminal records who gain resident status under this ruling would be protected from deportation in the future if they are subsequently convicted of felonies.
In late November Dr. Yang Dao, a Hmong-American scholar and educator of Southeast Asian history, visited Laos for two weeks to assess current conditions, in contrast to the country he had left in 1975. Yang is the first Hmong to receive a Ph.D., which he earned from the Sorbonne in 1972. He served in the Ministry of Planning of the Royal Lao Government from 1972 to 1974 and the Political Consultative Council, a National Coalition of the Kingdom of Laos from 1974 to 1975. Immigrating first to France, Yang moved to the US in 1983, where he has published extensively on Hmong history and culture and has taught at the university level.
In a letter detailing his visit to Laos, which Yang posted on the internet, he commented that the Hmong situation in Laos “has improved in all aspects.” He pointed out that while they constitute only 9% of the population, they hold 16% of the central and regional administrative positions. Although noting that “a few small pockets” of Hmong resistance remain, he found relations among the Hmong, Lao, Khmu and other ethnic groups to be peaceful and amicable. However, he also remarked upon the continuing poverty and lack of development in Laos, and its need for international assistance. Yang’s letter strongly encouraged members of the Hmong and Lao communities in the US to visit Laos to view for themselves the social, economic and political changes that have taken place in the past three decades, and to participate in the country’s development.
Reaction to Yang’s visit from some quarters of the Lao-American community has been predictably harsh. In response, he issued a statement on January 23, pointing out that he is “not the only visitor to notice the change in Laos.” He noted that after 1975 he took a strong and public stand in condemnation of attacks against the Hmong in the late 1970’s,
and that he encouraged government authorities to seek a peaceful solution to residual Hmong resistance during his 2002 trip. Yang said he plans to make a video of his trip to Laos available the Laotian-American community free of charge.
The Washington Indochina Update is published by the Fund for Reconciliation and Development (FRD), 355 West 39th Street, New York, NY 10018. It is compiled and written monthly by Catharin Dalpino who is representing FRD in Washington on a consultant basis. She can be reached at washington@ffrd.org.
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