WASHINGTON INDOCHINA UPDATE #11
NOVEMBER, 2002
A number of bills and an ambassadorial confirmation await the return of a post-election, “lame duck” Congress this month. In the meantime, activity has been brisk in several sectors of U.S.-Indochina relations, ranging from religious freedom to over-the-horizon free trade proposals.
Religious Freedom: A
One-Two Punch from the West
Over the past three months Vietnam, and to a lesser extent Laos, have come under criticism from the European Union and the United States on religious freedom issues. In September an EU parliamentary delegation, in Hanoi for a meeting with Southeast Asian lawmakers, attempted to meet with three religious figures currently under detention. Unable to do so, Harmut Nassauer, the delegation chair, announced his intention to seek a suspension of EU aid to Vietnam. However, no action has been taken in the current EU budget cycle.
Shortly thereafter, the State Department and the quasi-non-governmental U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) released their annual reviews of religious freedom in the world. As it did last year, the USCIRF recommended that the U.S. Government declare Vietnam and Laos “countries of particular concern (CPC),” the most severe rating. In their 2002 reports, the State Department criticized Vietnam and Laos, although acknowledging some progress in both countries. Despite the USCIRF recommendations, neither country is likely to be given the CPC label when the Secretary of State releases rankings on religious freedom in several weeks. As yet, neither the Commission nor State has moved to reduce the daylight between the two institutions on Vietnam and Laos.
Analysts in Asia offer two observations on Western criticism of the Vietnamese religious environment. First, the State Department reports often underestimate the number of followers of the country’s religions, painting an inaccurate picture of everyday religious life. Second, Western critics tend to conflate religion and politics. Broad political restrictions are often interpreted as religious persecution if they involve individuals with specific religious affiliation.
USAID is devoting a portion of its FY2003 budget to training and other support for the 2003 national elections in Cambodia. Earlier in the year, the Senate Appropriations Committee placed a hold on the funds, returning proposals to USAID because activities proposed did not show sufficient effort to counter the “structural advantages” of the government. In political terms, this signaled an intention to move toward partisan support of the opposition in the elections. In February, Senator Mitch McConnell, Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, left little doubt when he published an op ed in the Boston Globe maintaining that U.S. policy should be to secure victory for the Sam Rainsy Party, and charging that the State Department was appeasing the government in Phnom Penh.
Whether or not it was related to McConnell’s broadside, the State Department levied two criticisms of the government this fall. In October the Department issued a public warning about political violence in the run-up to elections. More veiled was Cambodia’s omission from the ministerial meeting of the Community of Democracies, to be held in Seoul this month. A US initiative, the Community invited 118 countries as participants, assumed to be democracies in form and function. An additional 21 countries, judged to have made credible if incomplete democratic progress, were allowed to observe. Although Cambodia is approaching its fourth election since the Paris Peace Agreement and has developed an active civil society and assertive press, it was excluded from both categories. Some full participants (such as East Timor) have very new, untested political systems while others (such as Nepal) have suffered recent backsliding in democracy. In the observer group, some countries (such as Afghanistan) have yet to have their first national elections, while others (Algeria, Egypt) have had static, semi-authoritarian systems for decades. Very few, if any, of the observer countries have civil societies as vigorous as Cambodia’s.
Australia and Japan have prepared and will propose a resolution for the United Nations General Assembly that would require the U.N. to resume negotiations with Cambodia over a tribunal for the Khmer Rouge. The resolution is scheduled to be introduced and voted upon this month. It aims to override the U.N. Secretariat’s decision earlier this year to shut down the negotiation process. Cambodia reportedly helped draft the resolution but declined to co-sponsor it. If the tribunal goes forward, it will be one of the few accountability exercises under a “supermajority” formula, mixing international and indigenous jurists.
Laos: Thumbs Up from
the IMF, Waiting for Nam Theun II
After completing a mid-term review of Laos’ performance under a three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility program, the International Monetary Fund approved a $6 million draw for the country in concessional funds for low-income countries. The Fund cited incipient progress in structural reforms and noted that macroeconomic stability has been sustained despite a recent rise in inflation. Nevertheless, the new IMF draw is sorely needed: with foreign investment still down in the wake of the 1997-98 regional economic crisis, Laos has needed to rely increasingly upon foreign assistance and loans.
This
economic vise prompted Laos in October to decide to proceed with the Nam Theun
II hydroelectric power project.
Scheduled to begin operation in 2008, the project has suffered delays
due to hitches in negotiation with the Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand, the future consumer, which has still to sign an agreement. Concurrently, the parties are attempting to
assemble a basket of loans and obtain a risk-management guarantee from the
World Bank. They estimate that a
funding base won’t be assured until late 2003 at the earliest. As yet, the Bank has made no final
commitments.
“Laddering” to a Free
Trade Agreement
At the APEC Summit in Mexico City, President Bush announced the Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative, designed to build a network of free trade agreements between Southeast Asian countries and the United States. At best a commitment in principle, the announcement was intended to offer additional incentives for US allies in counter-terrorism, and to pre-empt announcements of similar partnerships with ASEAN by the Asian regional powers – China, Japan, India – at the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh earlier this month. In order to be eligible for FTA’s, ASEAN countries must climb a ladder of trade agreements, first gaining entry into the World Trade Organization, and then completing Trade and Investment Agreements (TIPA’s) with the US. In that regard, the US pledged to help Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos get a foothold on the first rung by helping them become WTO members. No clear policy plan has emerged in that regard.
For Hanoi, the offer is well timed. Vietnam’s stalking horse for WTO entry has been China, and officials in Hanoi had assumed that they would be able to follow in Beijing’s path to accession at some distance behind, learning from the larger nation’s experience. However, as China accelerates its reforms to meet WTO obligations, Vietnam – like other ASEAN countries – is aware that Western investment and trade could be quickly siphoned off from Southeast Asia to China. The internal debate on WTO entry is only beginning in Vietnam.
At a dinner organized by the Fund for Reconciliation and Development in September,
Vietnamese Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyen Dy Nien offered an early assessment of the economic impact of his country’s Bilateral Trade Agreement with the United States. A scant year since the agreement went into effect, two-way trade has grown by fifty percent, with the most significant expansion in the aqua-product, garment and textile sectors. (A complete transcript of his remarks can be found at http://www.ffrd.org/dinner/vn.htm.)
But to the bafflement of Vietnamese, the first year of legal prohibitions on protectionism saw a rise in just that on the U.S. side. The American fishing industry continues to press its case on catfish imports, accusing Vietnam of dumping and, more fundamentally, of lacking a sufficient market economy to support trade. Previous objections maintained that Vietnamese misapplied the label of “catfish” to their products, and that the fish were inherently toxic: with no apparent sense of the irony, Arkansas Congressman Marion Berry alleged that Vietnamese catfish had been contaminated by Agent Orange. In October a Department of Commerce team visited Vietnam, and a determination on the anti-dumping issue is expected in February.
In the meantime, parallel charges of dumping shrimp have been made against Vietnam, as well as several other countries, including China, Thailand and Indonesia. In October Texas Representative Ron Paul introduced the Shrimp Importation Financing Fairness Act. Based on the assumption, as yet unsupported, that domestic environmental restrictions prevent the American shrimp industry from competing against these countries, the bill would require the elimination of OPIC and Export-Import Bank funds to them. It also calls for a reduction in the U.S. contribution to the International Monetary Fund in proportion to the amount assumed to be lost by American fishermen. The legislation is not expected to pass. However, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. seafood industry will file an anti-dumping suit against foreign shrimp imports.
Agent Orange: More Dialogue, and a Legislative Request
To continue dialogue on the effects of Agent Orange and other herbicides used by the United States during the Vietnam War, Yale University hosted a conference of approximately 200 Vietnamese, Laotian and American government officials, physicians, scientists, veterans, academics, activists and non-governmental representatives September 13-15. The event was sponsored by the Schools of Nursing and Forestry & Environmental Studies, in association with the Vietnam Veterans Association. Discussion centered on the possibilities for joint research and the cultural and practical aspects of doing research in Vietnam. The conference presented an opportunity for Vietnamese and Laotian researchers to develop ties with their American counterparts. It also promoted dialogue between Vietnamese participants and American veterans on priorities for funds. Although there was no consensus on this issue, the conference served to emphasize that joint research on Agent Orange can benefit both Vietnamese and Americans. When agreement was first reached between the US and Vietnam on research, Americans tended to view it primarily as a concession to Vietnam.
Following the conference a ten-member delegation of Vietnamese and Laotians visited New York City and Washington, D.C. Oxfam America and the American Friends Service Committee funded the group, and the program was coordinated by the Fund for Reconciliation and Development. The delegation met with Congressional staff, veterans groups, the National Academy of Sciences, the Federal Resources Center, the State Department, the UN Environmental Program, and the New York University School of Medicine. Delegation members made public presentations at Rockefeller University in New York and Georgetown University in Washington.
On October 3, three members of the US House of Representatives who served during the Vietnam War -- Congressmen Shuster, Murrtha and Andrews -- sent a letter to Vietnamese President Tran Duc Luong and the Vietnam Red Cross requesting permission to build an international medical and research center for Agent Orange victims in Vietnam. Beyond creating a permanent institution to redress problems of Agent Orange, such a collaborative project could move cooperation between the US and Vietnam beyond joint research to include assistance for AO’s victims.
In September former U.S. Ambassador to Hanoi Douglas “Pete” Peterson returned to Vietnam with a veterans delegation sponsored by the Vietnam Veterans Memorial Fund. A former Air Force pilot during the Vietnam War, Peterson was accompanied by his co-pilot, Col. Bernard F. Talley, also held as a prisoner of war. The delegation focused on VVMF’s Project RENEW, a two-year pilot program in Quang Tri Province to promote mine awareness and victims assistance in the province’s Trieu Phong District, where some of the fiercest fighting of the Vietnam War took place. The Fund has planned a series of events to commemorate the 20th anniversary of The Wall this Veteran’s Day. Further information is available at www.vvmf.org.
US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Jerry Rawlings visited Laos October 21-24, to underscore the ongoing US-Laotian partnership on POW/MIA recovery. The government of Laos reaffirmed its support for continued cooperation in this area. Rawlings expressed gratitude for Laotian efforts and indicated that successful cooperation could serve as a springboard for expanded US-Laotian relations.
The first Board of Directors has been selected for the Vietnam Education Foundation, the scientific and technical exchange program funded through repayment of US loans to Vietnam made prior to 1975. The 13-member board, drawn from Congress, the executive branch and the private sector, includes Senators Chuck Hagel and John Kerry and Congressmen George Miller and Christopher Smith. Hagel, Kerry and Miller have had significant involvement in US-Vietnamese relations. Smith, a prominent member of the House human rights caucus, has taken conservative positions on religious freedom and family planning, particularly in China. Executive branch members include Thomas Farrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Academic Programs; Albert Keidel, Acting Director for East Asia at the Department of the Treasury; and Joseph Esposito, Senior Advisor to the Deputy Secretary of Education. Private sector members are Herbert Allison of the Alliance for Lifelong Learning; Robert Bryant, Duke University; Frank Jao of Bridgecreek; Chung W. Kim of the Korean Institute for Advanced Study; and Marilyn Pattillo of the University of Texas at Austin.
Lon Nol Debt Revived
In an oddly parallel move, the US has requested repayment from Cambodia of nearly $300 million in PL-480 commodity loans made to the Lon Nol government in the early 1970’s. The Ministry of Finance and Economy is reviewing loan documents presented to Cambodia at the end of last year; the Cambodian government lost all pre-1975 records when the Khmer Rouge systematically destroyed official documents after seizing Phnom Penh. The two governments have been in quiet consultation and expect to hold a high-level meeting on repayment in the near future. Both sides anticipate that the loans will be renegotiated to a lower amount. Although they do not deny the obligation, Cambodian officials cite two difficulties in repayment. Even a reduced level would be difficult for the government to cover at this point in Cambodia’s economic development. In addition, Attorney General Dr. Kao Bunbong points out that the Cambodian National Assembly retroactively declared the Lon Nol government to have been illegal; repayment of the loan could imply recognition of the regime.
On October 1 Ambassador-Designate to Cambodia Charles A. Ray testified at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. A career foreign service officer and former army officer, Ray served as the first post-war US Consul-General in Ho Chi Minh City. In his remarks, Ray pledged to encourage reform of Cambodian adoption law and to work with the Cambodian government on a full accounting for POW/MIA’s. He also cited humanitarian resettlement of Montagnard refugees, the repatriation of Cambodian nationals deported from the US by the INS, and cooperation on the war on terrorism as front-burner issues in US-Cambodian relations. The administration is hoping for Ray’s confirmation in early November and a departure to Phnom Penh before the end of the month. However, this schedule will depend upon the legislative leadership’s ability to mobilize the “lame duck” Congress in short order.